Succinct Summations for the week ending February 8th, 2019:
1. Jeff Bezos for the win! Calling out David Pecker and AMI, He indicted and broke the National Enquirer’s corruption-based business model. He might be one of the few billionaires who had a good week.
2. Q4 EPS to show 5th-straight quarter of double-digit growth;
3. Federal Chair Jerome Powell finished his 1st year on the job, with no obvious blow ups;
4. Same store sales rose 5.7% w/o/w, not far from previous 5.8% rise.
5. Jobless claims fell by 19k w/o/w, from 253k to 234k.
6. International trade deficit moved from -55.7B to -49.3B in November.
1. S&P 500 earnings outlook falls; Q1 decline would be first since Q2 2016:
2. Markets fell for the first week this year, on all the same issues: Tariffs, trade wars, and government shutdowns;
3. Factory orders fell 0.6% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.2% rise.
4. MBA mortgage apps fell a seasonally adj. 5.0% w/o/w, down from previous 2.0% decline.
5. Crude oil inventories rose 1.3M barrels w/o/w, 6.4% higher than one year ago.
6. ISM non-mfg index came in at 56.7 for January, below expected 57.1.
The Secret to Hiring Great People
What is the best way to attract and hire the very best people in your business? That was the challenge facing restaurateur Cameron Mitchell, founder and CEO of Cameron Mitchell Restaurants (CMR). While many restaurants chase after star chefs and expensive talent, Mitchell found that was not the path to acquire industry rock stars.
“We get the same people everybody else gets,” he says. “We don’t hire great people, we hire people and allow them to become great.”
His approach is to hire entry-level employees, and then teach them the company’s culture and philosophy. CMR prefers to promote from within, with each new server or bartender looked at as a potential supervisor, manager, and VP. This is a different premise than most restaurants. The secret, according to Mitchell, is to “just treat people great and inspire them to grow and learn.” Employees are excited about the company, and “it’s such a positive momentum that it permeates […]
Succinct Summations for the week ending January 18th, 2019
1. Markets eked out a gain on hopes for a Trade War breakthrough.
2. Housing market index rose 2 points m/o/m from 56 to 58.
3.Home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 9% w/o/w, highest level since April 2010.
4. Jobless claims fell 3k w/o/w from 216k to 213k, lower than expected 221k .
5. Crude oil inventories fell 2.7M barrels w/o/w to 437.1M.
6. Industrial manufacturing rose 1.1% m/o/m, beating the expected 0.1% increase.
1. Shutdown in DC continues unabated — this is now the longest Government shutdown in the modern era.
2. PPI-FD fell 0.2% m/o/m, less than previous month’s 0.1% increase.
3.Import prices fell -1.0%, and export prices fell -0.6% m/o/m, missing expectations.
4. Same store sales rose 6.7% w/o/w, down from previous 8.9% increase.
5. Industrial production rose 0.3% m/o/m, down from prior revised 0.4% increase.
6. Consumer sentiment index fell to 90.7 in January, below the expected 97.0.
Our curated list of midweek reads.
- If Earnings Have Peaked, Will a Stock Wipeout Follow? Corporate profits likely crested in last year’s 3rd quarter. But that might not be too bad. (CIO) see also Diversification is (Almost) Undefeated (Wealth of Common Sense)
- The Real Cost of Cheap Groceries (Fortune)
- Consider Firing Your Male Broker (New York Times)
- “2019 will be the year of the stock-picker” – and other nonsense to ignore (Moneyweek)
- Do Economic Booms Die of Old Age? (Bloomberg Businessweek)
- So what can Apple do next? (Om) see also 2019 Predictions (L2)
- Startups: Time to Exit (Ian Hathaway)
- Our pets: the key to the obesity crisis? (BBC)
“We believe that one of the ways to make the world better is to become smarter about the news we consume.”
This is the Media Bias Chart, in its latest iteration. It’s a unique way of laying out the complex media landscape in two dimensions: quality, on the vertical axis, and bias, on the horizontal axis.
Succinct Summations for the week ending January 11th, 2019
1. Trade negotiations between US & China appear to be progressing towards a denouement as political, economic market pressure is felt on each side of the Pacific.
2. Energy Prices continue to be soft, putting more dollars in consumers wallets;
3. CPI came in at -0.1% for December, meeting expectations.
4. Home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 17.0% w/o/w, up from prior -8.0% decrease
5. Jobless claims fell by 17k w/o/w from 233k to 216k.
6. Consumer credit rose 22.1B m/o/m, greater than the expected 19.0B increase.
1. Stalement! Government shut down will enters its 4th week, acting as a drag on the economy.
2. Energy Prices continue to be soft, reflecting the slowing global economy;
3. Job openings came in at 6.88M in November, down from prior revised 7.13M.
4. ISM non-mfg index fell 3.1 points m/o/m from 60.7 to 57.6
5. Small business optimism index fell from 104.8 to 104.4 in December.
6. Same store sales rose 8.9% w/o/w, down from previous weeks 9.3% rise.
Economic Innovation Group (EIG), a Washington, DC – based think tank shaped the Investing Opportunity Act which made it to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts (Trumps tax reform legislation). There, it got a new name: the ‘Opportunity Zones’ program, which encompasses nearly 9,000 ‘economically distressed communities’ or “Opportunity Zones” across America. In early 2018, every US Governor designated certain communities as Opportunity Zones in his or her state. In total, there are 8,762 Opportunity Zones that cover about 12% of America’s land mass. They are home to approximately 35 million people with an average poverty rate of 32%.
In a nutshell, The Opportunity Zones program is a new tax incentive established by the US Congress whose goal is to encourage long-term investment in low-income communities across the US. The program gives investors the opportunity to sell their appreciated investments and invest their capital gains in one or more of these Opportunity Zones across the country on a tax deferred basis. Considering America’s […]
From more states legalizing to a boom of new kinds of products, here’s what to expect from the cannabis industry this year. […]
Succinct Summations for the week ending January 4th, 2018
1. Total non-farm payrolls increased by 312k m/o/m, much greater than expected 180k.
2. Stocks (mostly) recovered from a disastrous start to the year; indices tacked on 3-4% Friday;
3. Wages gained 3.2% as more people returned the labor force;
4. Same store sales rose 9.3% w/o/w, up from previous week’s 7.8% increase;
5. PMI services index came in at 54.4, greater than the expected 53.4;
6. December vehicle sales = 17.5m at a SAAR, above the estimate of 17.24m.
1. Home mortgage applications fell a seasonally-adjusted -8.0% w/o/w, down further form previous -7.0% decline.
2. Apple, only recently the world’s biggest company, is now off its highs by ~38%;
3. Number of unemployed rose by 276,000, sending Unemployment rate rose to 3.9%;
4.Jobless claims rose 10k w/o/w, from 221k to 231k.
5. PMI manufacturing index fell from 55.3 to 53.8 in December.
6. December ISM manufacturing index came in at 54.1 for December, missing expected 57.9.