- Since 1916, the Dow has made new all-time highs less than 5% of all days, but over that time it’s up 25,568%.
95% of the time you’re underwater. The less you look the better off you’ll be.
- The Dow has compounded at less than 3 basis points a day since 1970. Since then its up more than 3,000%.
Compounding really is magic.
- The Dow has only been positive 52% of all days. The average daily return is 0.73% when it’s up and -0.76% when it’s down.
- The Dow has spent more time 40% or more below the highs than within 2% of the highs (20.6% of days vs. 18.4% of days)
No pain no gain.
- The Dow gained 38 points in the 1970s
- Why am I using the Dow instead of the S&P 500? They’re effectively the same thing. The rolling one-year correlation since 1970 is .95.
Stop wasting your time on this.
- At the low in 2009, U.S. stocks were back to where they were in 1996.
Stocks for the long-run. The very long-run. Usually. Sometimes.
- At the low in 2009, Japanese stocks were back to where they were in 1980.
Succinct Summations for the week ending March 8th, 2019
- Average hourly earnings grew by 0.4% m/o/m, higher by 3.4% y/o/y, the best since 2009;
- Unemployment rate fell 0.2% m/o/m, from 4.0% to 3.8%.
- Housing starts rose to 1.230M in January, above the expected 1.170M.
- Jobless claims fell 3k w/o/w from 226k to 223k.
- New home sales rose 3.7% in December from 599k to 621k.
- Non-farm productivity rose 1.9% q/o/q, beating the expected 1.6%.
- Non-farm payrolls rose 20k, below the expected 175k.
- Mortgage apps fell a seasonally adjusted 3.0% w/o/w, down from previous 6.0% rise.
- International trade deficit fell to -59.8B in December, falling below the expected -57.6B.
- Job layoffs rose to a 3-year high of 76,835 in February.
- Construction spending fell 0.6% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.3% increase
- Same store sales rose 4.2% w/o/w, decelerating from previous 5.2% increase..
My undisclosed location Monday morning reads:
- The Deep Vault of Millennial Fintech Apps (The Ringer)
- MMT for Dummies (Credit Writedowns)
- The Best Books on Capitalism and Human Nature by Robert Shiller (Five Books)
- Quick Thinking Leads to Bad Behavior (Morningstar)
- Why Haven’t Over-The-Air Updates Taken Over The Auto Industry? (The Drive)
- The Bill Gross You Didn’t Know: Taxes, Deficits and Asperger’s (Bloomberg)
- Dilution of whisky – the molecular perspective (Nature)
Succinct Summations for the week ending March 1st, 2019
1. Former POTUS attorney Michael Cohen’s testifies to Congress, bringing this entire mess another step closer to ending;
2. GDP rose 2.6% for Q4, meeting high end of expectations.
3. Home mortgage apps rose 6.0% w/o/w, up from previous 1.7% rise.
4. Wholesale trade rose 1.1% m/o/m, beating the expected 0.3%.
5. Pending home sales rose 4.6% m/o/m, beating the expected 1.0%.
6. Retail inventories rose 0.9% m/o/m, while wholesale inventories rose 1.1% m/o/m.
1. No luck in denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula as Hanoi Summit is a bust;
2. Same store sales rose 5.2% w/o/w, decelerating from previous 5.4%.
3. Housing starts fell 11.2% m/o/m, from 1.214M to 1.078M.
4. Jobless claims rose 8k w/o/w from 217k to 225k.
5. Farm prices fell 4.5% m/o/m, down from previous 1.8% rise.
6. Factory orders rose 0.1% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.6% rise..
Succinct Summations for the week ending February 8th, 2019:
1. Jeff Bezos for the win! Calling out David Pecker and AMI, He indicted and broke the National Enquirer’s corruption-based business model. He might be one of the few billionaires who had a good week.
2. Q4 EPS to show 5th-straight quarter of double-digit growth;
3. Federal Chair Jerome Powell finished his 1st year on the job, with no obvious blow ups;
4. Same store sales rose 5.7% w/o/w, not far from previous 5.8% rise.
5. Jobless claims fell by 19k w/o/w, from 253k to 234k.
6. International trade deficit moved from -55.7B to -49.3B in November.
1. S&P 500 earnings outlook falls; Q1 decline would be first since Q2 2016:
2. Markets fell for the first week this year, on all the same issues: Tariffs, trade wars, and government shutdowns;
3. Factory orders fell 0.6% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.2% rise.
4. MBA mortgage apps fell a seasonally adj. 5.0% w/o/w, down from previous 2.0% decline.
5. Crude oil inventories rose 1.3M barrels w/o/w, 6.4% higher than one year ago.
6. ISM non-mfg index came in at 56.7 for January, below expected 57.1.
The Secret to Hiring Great People
What is the best way to attract and hire the very best people in your business? That was the challenge facing restaurateur Cameron Mitchell, founder and CEO of Cameron Mitchell Restaurants (CMR). While many restaurants chase after star chefs and expensive talent, Mitchell found that was not the path to acquire industry rock stars.
“We get the same people everybody else gets,” he says. “We don’t hire great people, we hire people and allow them to become great.”
His approach is to hire entry-level employees, and then teach them the company’s culture and philosophy. CMR prefers to promote from within, with each new server or bartender looked at as a potential supervisor, manager, and VP. This is a different premise than most restaurants. The secret, according to Mitchell, is to “just treat people great and inspire them to grow and learn.” Employees are excited about the company, and “it’s such a positive momentum that it permeates […]
Succinct Summations for the week ending January 18th, 2019
1. Markets eked out a gain on hopes for a Trade War breakthrough.
2. Housing market index rose 2 points m/o/m from 56 to 58.
3.Home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 9% w/o/w, highest level since April 2010.
4. Jobless claims fell 3k w/o/w from 216k to 213k, lower than expected 221k .
5. Crude oil inventories fell 2.7M barrels w/o/w to 437.1M.
6. Industrial manufacturing rose 1.1% m/o/m, beating the expected 0.1% increase.
1. Shutdown in DC continues unabated — this is now the longest Government shutdown in the modern era.
2. PPI-FD fell 0.2% m/o/m, less than previous month’s 0.1% increase.
3.Import prices fell -1.0%, and export prices fell -0.6% m/o/m, missing expectations.
4. Same store sales rose 6.7% w/o/w, down from previous 8.9% increase.
5. Industrial production rose 0.3% m/o/m, down from prior revised 0.4% increase.
6. Consumer sentiment index fell to 90.7 in January, below the expected 97.0.
Our curated list of midweek reads.
- If Earnings Have Peaked, Will a Stock Wipeout Follow? Corporate profits likely crested in last year’s 3rd quarter. But that might not be too bad. (CIO) see also Diversification is (Almost) Undefeated (Wealth of Common Sense)
- The Real Cost of Cheap Groceries (Fortune)
- Consider Firing Your Male Broker (New York Times)
- “2019 will be the year of the stock-picker” – and other nonsense to ignore (Moneyweek)
- Do Economic Booms Die of Old Age? (Bloomberg Businessweek)
- So what can Apple do next? (Om) see also 2019 Predictions (L2)
- Startups: Time to Exit (Ian Hathaway)
- Our pets: the key to the obesity crisis? (BBC)
“We believe that one of the ways to make the world better is to become smarter about the news we consume.”
This is the Media Bias Chart, in its latest iteration. It’s a unique way of laying out the complex media landscape in two dimensions: quality, on the vertical axis, and bias, on the horizontal axis.
Succinct Summations for the week ending January 11th, 2019
1. Trade negotiations between US & China appear to be progressing towards a denouement as political, economic market pressure is felt on each side of the Pacific.
2. Energy Prices continue to be soft, putting more dollars in consumers wallets;
3. CPI came in at -0.1% for December, meeting expectations.
4. Home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 17.0% w/o/w, up from prior -8.0% decrease
5. Jobless claims fell by 17k w/o/w from 233k to 216k.
6. Consumer credit rose 22.1B m/o/m, greater than the expected 19.0B increase.
1. Stalement! Government shut down will enters its 4th week, acting as a drag on the economy.
2. Energy Prices continue to be soft, reflecting the slowing global economy;
3. Job openings came in at 6.88M in November, down from prior revised 7.13M.
4. ISM non-mfg index fell 3.1 points m/o/m from 60.7 to 57.6
5. Small business optimism index fell from 104.8 to 104.4 in December.
6. Same store sales rose 8.9% w/o/w, down from previous weeks 9.3% rise.