If you are interested in the restaurant industry and what it’s like to develop a restaurant concept and expand it from one restaurant to many across the country. They have 3,000 employees and restaurants of a variety of different names, probably best known is Ocean Prime. Their portfolio of restaurants generates over $300 million a year in revenue in 60 different locations across 15 different restaurant themes.
Mitchell, a Culinary Institute of America graduate, just celebrated his 25th running the firm. The genesis of his Mitchell’s philosophy comes from his experience of trying to order a grilled cheese sandwich and a chocolate milk shake for his son in a restaurant in a very Jack Nicholson moment (Five Easy Pieces). He quickly came to the realization that being able to say yes to customers was the very premise of a good restaurant — and often for many a missed opportunity. Mitchell also reveals the secret of spotting talent and hiring great people. His approach is to hire entry-level employees, and then teach […]
Succinct Summations for the week ending October 11th 2019
1. Partial agreement has brokered a truce in the trade war; “Skinny” Trade Deal appears to be within reach.
2. Jobless claims fell 10k w/o/w from 220k to 210k.
3. Import prices rose 0.2% m/o/m, above the expected decrease of 0.1%.
4. Wholesale trade rose 0.2% m/o/m, in line with the previous 0.2% increase.
5. Export prices fell 0.2% m/o/m after previous decrease of 0.6%.
6. Consumer credit rose $17.9B in August, above the expected increase of $17.0B.
1. Two Rudy Giuliani associates are arrested on campaign finance scheme; Ukraine scandal is broader and deeper than previously understood, with more administrative officials and countries involved than previously believed;
2. Home mortgage apps fell 1.0% w/o/w, below the previous 1.0% increase.
3. Job openings came in at 7.051M in August, down from previous 7.174M.
4. Same store sales rose 5.7% w/o/w, decelerating from the previous increase of 5.8%.
5. TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index fell 11 points in September from 4.62 to 4.51.
6. PPI-FD fell 0.3% m/o/m, below the expected increase of 0.1%.
Succinct Summations for the week ending October 4th, 2019
1. Public markets work! Absurdly overvalued unicorns run by self-dealing narcissists cannot seem to find enough suckers to take their crappy shares off their hands, as WeWorks cancels IPO.
2. Unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5% in September.
3. Non-farm payrolls rose 136k m/o/m, meeting the range of expectations.
4. MBA mortgage applications rose 1.0% w/o/w, above the previous decrease of 3.0%.
5. PMI Manufacturing index came in at 51.1 for September, above the previous 50.3.
6. Layoff announcements fell from 53,480 to 41,557 m/o/m, the lowest level since April.
1. “Stupid Watergate” got much worse, now involving China, VP Pence, and Sec of State Pompeo;
2. As crappy Unicorns implode, the collateral damage threatens legitimate IPO market.
3. Factory orders fell 0.1% m/o/m, below the previous increase of 1.4%.
4. ISM Mfg Index came in at 47.8 for September, below the expected 50.0.
5. Jobless claims rose 4k w/o/w from 215k to 219k.
6. Construction spending rose 0.1% w/o/w, below the expected increase of 0.3%.
Succinct Summations for the week ending September 27th, 2019
- Impeachment is finally here, and markets are n0w closer to resolving that uncertainty . . .
- GDP rose 2.0% according to the third estimate for Q2.
- New home sales rose to an annual rate of 713k in August, above previous 666k.
- Pending home sales rose 1.6% m/o/m, above the expected increase of 0.6%.
- New orders for durable goods rose 0.2% m/o/m, above the previous decrease of 1.2%.
- Wholesale inventories rose 0.4% w/o/w, above the previous increase of 0.2%.
- FHFA House Price Index rose 0.4% m/o/m, above the expected increase of 0.2%.
- PMI Composite came in at 51.0 for September, within the range of expectations.
- IPOs continue to struggle, as WeWork gets postponed and Peleton comes out below IPO price.
- Same store sales rose 5.2% w/o/w, decelerating from the previous increase of 5.4%.
- Corporate profits rose 0.3%, below the previous increase of 1.7%.
- Retail inventories remain unchanged after the previous increase of 0.8%.
- Consumer spending rose 0.1% in August, below the previous increase of 0.5%.
- Consumer confidence fell from 135.1 to 125.1 m/o/m, below the expected 133.0.
- Jobless claims rose 3k w/o/w from 210k to 213k.
- Home mortgage app fell 3.0% w/o/w […]
Since 1916, the Dow has made new all-time highs less than 5% of all days, but over that time it’s up 25,568%.
95% of the time you’re underwater. The less you look the better off you’ll be.
The Dow has compounded at less than 3 basis points a day since 1970. Since then its up more than 3,000%.
Compounding really is magic.
The Dow has only been positive 52% of all days. The average daily return is 0.73% when it’s up and -0.76% when it’s down.
The Dow has spent more time 40% or more below the highs than within 2% of the highs (20.6% of days vs. 18.4% of days)
No pain no gain.
The Dow gained 38 points in the 1970s
Why am I using the Dow instead of the S&P 500? They’re effectively the same thing. The rolling one-year correlation since 1970 is .95.
Stop wasting your time on this.
At the low in 2009, U.S. stocks were back to where they were in 1996.
Stocks for the long-run. The very long-run. Usually. Sometimes.
At the low in 2009, Japanese stocks were back to where they were in 1980.
Succinct Summations for the week ending March 8th, 2019
- Average hourly earnings grew by 0.4% m/o/m, higher by 3.4% y/o/y, the best since 2009;
- Unemployment rate fell 0.2% m/o/m, from 4.0% to 3.8%.
- Housing starts rose to 1.230M in January, above the expected 1.170M.
- Jobless claims fell 3k w/o/w from 226k to 223k.
- New home sales rose 3.7% in December from 599k to 621k.
- Non-farm productivity rose 1.9% q/o/q, beating the expected 1.6%.
- Non-farm payrolls rose 20k, below the expected 175k.
- Mortgage apps fell a seasonally adjusted 3.0% w/o/w, down from previous 6.0% rise.
- International trade deficit fell to -59.8B in December, falling below the expected -57.6B.
- Job layoffs rose to a 3-year high of 76,835 in February.
- Construction spending fell 0.6% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.3% increase
- Same store sales rose 4.2% w/o/w, decelerating from previous 5.2% increase..
My undisclosed location Monday morning reads:
- The Deep Vault of Millennial Fintech Apps (The Ringer)
- MMT for Dummies (Credit Writedowns)
- The Best Books on Capitalism and Human Nature by Robert Shiller (Five Books)
- Quick Thinking Leads to Bad Behavior (Morningstar)
- Why Haven’t Over-The-Air Updates Taken Over The Auto Industry? (The Drive)
- The Bill Gross You Didn’t Know: Taxes, Deficits and Asperger’s (Bloomberg)
- Dilution of whisky – the molecular perspective (Nature)
Succinct Summations for the week ending March 1st, 2019
1. Former POTUS attorney Michael Cohen’s testifies to Congress, bringing this entire mess another step closer to ending;
2. GDP rose 2.6% for Q4, meeting high end of expectations.
3. Home mortgage apps rose 6.0% w/o/w, up from previous 1.7% rise.
4. Wholesale trade rose 1.1% m/o/m, beating the expected 0.3%.
5. Pending home sales rose 4.6% m/o/m, beating the expected 1.0%.
6. Retail inventories rose 0.9% m/o/m, while wholesale inventories rose 1.1% m/o/m.
1. No luck in denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula as Hanoi Summit is a bust;
2. Same store sales rose 5.2% w/o/w, decelerating from previous 5.4%.
3. Housing starts fell 11.2% m/o/m, from 1.214M to 1.078M.
4. Jobless claims rose 8k w/o/w from 217k to 225k.
5. Farm prices fell 4.5% m/o/m, down from previous 1.8% rise.
6. Factory orders rose 0.1% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.6% rise..
Succinct Summations for the week ending February 8th, 2019:
1. Jeff Bezos for the win! Calling out David Pecker and AMI, He indicted and broke the National Enquirer’s corruption-based business model. He might be one of the few billionaires who had a good week.
2. Q4 EPS to show 5th-straight quarter of double-digit growth;
3. Federal Chair Jerome Powell finished his 1st year on the job, with no obvious blow ups;
4. Same store sales rose 5.7% w/o/w, not far from previous 5.8% rise.
5. Jobless claims fell by 19k w/o/w, from 253k to 234k.
6. International trade deficit moved from -55.7B to -49.3B in November.
1. S&P 500 earnings outlook falls; Q1 decline would be first since Q2 2016:
2. Markets fell for the first week this year, on all the same issues: Tariffs, trade wars, and government shutdowns;
3. Factory orders fell 0.6% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.2% rise.
4. MBA mortgage apps fell a seasonally adj. 5.0% w/o/w, down from previous 2.0% decline.
5. Crude oil inventories rose 1.3M barrels w/o/w, 6.4% higher than one year ago.
6. ISM non-mfg index came in at 56.7 for January, below expected 57.1.