Succinct Summation for the final week of the year!
- Indices rally 4-5% on Wednesday off of deeply oversold levels; Dow jumps 1,000 points as stocks hold gains;
- Same store sales rose 7.8% w/o/w, up from previous week’s 7.1% increase.
- Jobless claims fell 1k w/o/w, from prior revised 217k to 216k.
- FHFA house price index rose 0.3% w/o/w, meeting expectations.
- Chicago PMI came in at 65.4 for December, above the expected 62.4. Chicago fed national activity index rose to 0.22 in November, exceeding expected 0.19.
- Government Shut Down continues as Washington dysfunctionality worsens;
- Consumer confidence index fell 8.3 points in December, from 136.4 to 128.1.
- Pending home sales decreased -0.7% m/o/m, missing the expected 1.5% increase.
- State street investor confidence index fell 2.8 points m/o/m from 82.6 to to 79.8.
- Case-Shiller index rose 5.0% y/o/y, 0.2% lower than previous 5.2% increase.
This is article was contributed from a member of our TWFG network, so we thank them for their contribution. They are a full-service Accounting firm licensed in CA that offers a range of services for business owners, executives, and independent professionals. If you have any questions about this article, or would like to learn more, I would be happy to facilitate an introduction.
If you’re a small business owner that develops a product, you and (or) your CPA should be utilizing Internal Revenue Code Section 41 which offers taxpayers a tax credit for increasing research activities. The research credit for the tax year is, in general, an amount equal to the sum of 20% of the excess (if any) of the qualified research expenses for the tax year over the base amount (the base amount is determined in a method which is beyond the scope of this memorandum).
While China’s economy is far behind in nominal terms at $12.2 trillion, you may recall that the Chinese economy has been the world’s largest when adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) since 2016.
The next two largest economies are Japan ($4.9 trillion) and Germany ($4.6 trillion) – and when added to the U.S. and China, the top four economies combined account for over 50% of the world economy.
Our curated list of midweek reads.
- As is always the case, strategists see stocks going higher next year (Irrelevant Investor) see also $14,889,930,106,680: How much companies listed on the world’s stock markets have lost in value since peaking on Jan 28 2018 (Bloomberg)
- The Fed Is Trying to Tell Us Something (Real Time Economics)
- This San Francisco Investor Wants to Revolutionize Private Equity with a Quant Fund for Private Markets. Is He Crazy? (Institutional Investor)
- Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla’s Production Hell (Wired)
- How the IRS Was Gutted (ProPublica)
- The Revenge of the Chart Watchers. (Institutional Investor)
- Prediction vs. Preparation (A Wealth of Common Sense)
- 50 Reasons Why We Don’t Invest for the Long-Term (Behavioural Investment)
- Sad Santas Confront Empty Malls: Vacant storefronts don’t herald jolly holidays for professional Kriss Kringles (Wall Street Journal) see also Abandoned Frank Lloyd Wright – Tour of Shams Palace, Iran. (Yomadic)
My morning train reads:
- Infographic of the Day: Crunching the numbers on tax costs + local living expenses off of a $100,000 baseline annual salary ($8,333 in monthly net income) (HowMuch)
- GE Powered the American Century—Then It Burned Out: How the company that was once America’s biggest, maker of power turbines, seller of insurance, broadcaster of ‘Seinfeld,’ became a shadow of its former (Wall Street Journal)
- Fine Wine Outperformed Global Equities in 2018 (Barron’s)
- Annuities are Sold, Not Bought (Belle Curve)
- How Generation X Ruined the World: They taught Millennials that self-obsession is the highest mark of cultural capital (Vice)
- The best doesn’t exist. A psychologist explains why we can’t stop searching. (Vox)
(Photo: The Delectable Gaspar Trio and Churro Croissant at Portola Coffee Roasters in SOCO Mix…Portola has 7 current locations, 3 more in the works and is our Portfolio Company at TWFG that will be aggressively expanding throughout Southern CA)
My easy like Sunday morning reads:
- At Goldman Sachs, the David Solomon Era Begins with Subtle but Significant Changes (Vanity Fair)
- Michael Cohen’s New Home (Institutional Investor)
- The Oil Industry’s Covert Campaign to Rewrite American Car Emissions Rules (New York Times)
- Economics: The Discipline That Refuses to Change. Behavioral economics upended the idea that humans act solely in their rational self-interest. So why do most undergrads barely learn anything about the field? (The Atlantic)
- The benefits of this ‘strong economy’ have not reached all Americans (Washington Post)
- Why Trump Can’t Kill the Electric Car (Politico)
- After a Natural Disaster, Is It Better to Rebuild or Retreat?It’s a question that will become only more urgent as climate change continues to fuel extreme weather. (New York Times)
- Which Americans support the Second Amendment? The answer depends on whether whites or blacks have […]
Succinct Summations for the week ending December 14th, 2018
- MBA mortgage applications rose a seasonally-adjusted 3.0% w/o/w, higher than previous 1.0% increase.
- Job openings rose 1.7% m/o/m from 6.960M to 7.079M.
- Jobless claims fell 27k w/o/w, from 233k to 206k.
- CPI came in at no change m/o/m as expected.
- Industrial production rose 0.6% m/o/m, up from previous 0.3% increase.
- PPI-FD rose 0.1% m/o/m, within the expected range for November.
- Import prices fell 1.6% m/o/m, and export prices fell 0.9% m/o/m, missing expectations.
- NFIB small business optimism index came in 104.8, below the expected 107.0.
- Retail sales rose 0.2% m/o/m, down from previous 1.1% increase.
- PMI composite FLASH came in at 53.6 in November, down from previous 54.4.
- Same store sales rose 6.6% w/o/w, falling short of previous 7.0% increase.
Our Curated List of Friday Reads:
- The Dynamic Graph (Data Visualization) Shows the Top 10 Countries with Most GDP from 1960 to 2017. It provides a lens through time, showing the rapid ascent of certain countries and the stagnation of others (Youtube)
- Yep, Bitcoin Was a Bubble. And It Popped. (Bloomberg)
- A Surprising Push By The Invisible Hand: Why More Companies Are Doing Better By Being Good (Forbes)
- Does Anyone Care About Year-Ahead Outlooks? (Institutional Investor)
- Homelessness Rises More Quickly Where Rent Exceeds a Third of Income (Zillow)
- Fire, Floods and Famine: The Pessimist’s Guide to 2019 (Bloomberg) but see Best things on the Internet 2018 (AV Club)
- How Ireland Outmaneuvered Britain on Brexit: Irish diplomats set the terms of the Brexit talks long before the British caught on. Here’s how they pulled it off. (Bloomberg)
A seven-year-old boy who reviews toys has been revealed as YouTube’s highest-earning star, raking in $22m (£17.3m).
Videos are posted most days and one promoting a blue giant mystery egg bearing Ryan’s face has had more than a million views since Sunday.
My back-to-work morning commute reads:
- Donald Trump Owns This Stock Market: It wasn’t smart to dump a dovish Fed chief, run up a deficit, and start a trade war…Trump did all three (Bloomberg)
- Bogle: RIAs Are the Future; Trading Is Investors’ Enemy (ThinkAdvisor)
- Lessons From the Bernie Madoff Fraud, 10 Years Later (Barron’s) see also Madoff’s Victims Are Close To Getting Their $19 Billion Back (Bloomberg)
- We’re No Longer in the Smartphone Plateau. We’re in the Smartphone Decline. (New York Magazine)
- 2018 wasn’t a complete horror show. Here are four things that probably got better. (Vox)
- Judge Andrew Napolitano: Why I don’t believe that Mueller is on a fishing expedition (or is about to go home) (Fox News)